Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.62333e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.58146e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.77992e-08           7          73          19           1           0        B6.0
est. ISN   =             1          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            41.00       51.00        7.75        0.25        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B2.4