Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.21415e-06          53          46           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.77484e-06          21          75           3           1           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   4.75965e-08           8          84           7           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            27.75       64.00        7.25        1.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.9