Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.92146e-06          39          58           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.66546e-06          18          74           7           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   8.27955e-08           5          55          37           3           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =             4          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            28.25       56.75       14.00        1.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B3.0