Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.98190e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.94742e-06          59          38           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.46683e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.7
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            36.25       58.00        5.50        0.25        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.1