Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.52049e-05          10          49          38           3           0        B8.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.21466e-05           3          21          70           6           0        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.81747e-07           1           2          85          11           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            16.00       28.25       50.50        5.00        0.25     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      C3.0