Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.00684e-06          40          57           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.06910e-06          16          78           5           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   9.86267e-08           1          31          67           1           0        C1.3
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            21.50       54.25       23.25        1.00        0.00     B3.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9