Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.35012e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.06286e-05          12          75          13           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.29675e-07           1          11          78          10           0        C2.0
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            15.75       53.25       28.00        3.00        0.00     B5.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5