Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.22585e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.78120e-06          48          50           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   9.53099e-08           1          31          68           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            29.50       46.25       23.50        0.75        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1