Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.68814e-05           3          47          47           3           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.39747e-05           1          15          78           6           0        C2.0
GOES Xray  =   1.58369e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             2.75       30.75       59.00        7.50        0.00     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C3.9