Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.84365e-05           1           2          51          37           9        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.15606e-05           1           2          38          47          12        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.37086e-07           1           1          56          36           6        C7.5
est. ISN   =            42           5          36          52           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.50       10.75       49.25       31.25        7.25     C6.2
 
realized                                                                                      M4.7