Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.83124e-05           1           9          77          12           1        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.00653e-05           1           5          77          17           0        C3.0
GOES Xray  =   2.06904e-07           1           1          71          24           3        C4.4
est. ISN   =            28           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                             2.00       17.75       64.25       15.00        1.00     C2.9
 
realized                                                                                      C8.1