Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.00123e-05          10          80           9           1           0        B4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.33496e-05           4          57          38           1           0        B8.1
GOES Xray  =   1.78201e-07           1           1          83          14           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =            23           8          55          31           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             5.75       48.25       40.25        5.50        0.25     B8.8
 
realized                                                                                      C3.0