Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.62914e-06          49          48           3           0           0        B1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.63687e-06          23          73           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.01855e-07           1          28          69           2           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =            45           4          25          61           7           3        C1.7
 
together                            19.25       43.50       34.00        2.50        0.75     B5.5
 
realized                                                                                      B6.3