Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.40391e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.71634e-06          48          50           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   5.68411e-08           8          75          16           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =            52           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                            28.00       46.75       21.00        4.00        0.25     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      B5.0