Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.16291e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.56436e-05           5          50          41           4           0        B9.5
GOES Xray  =   1.20749e-07           1          13          81           5           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            57           2          20          62          15           1        C2.7
 
together                             4.75       38.25       50.75        6.00        0.25     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C3.5