Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.21881e-06          53          45           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.32318e-06          37          62           1           0           0        B1.4
GOES Xray  =   6.30759e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =            43           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                            25.25       53.25       19.50        1.50        0.50     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3