Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.99428e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.80047e-06          21          75           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   8.61574e-08           4          49          44           3           0        B9.7
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            24.50       58.00       16.00        1.50        0.00     B3.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1