Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.11866e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.95449e-06          30          69           0           1           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   3.30929e-08          10          89           1           0           0        B3.5
est. ISN   =             6          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            36.50       60.50        2.75        0.25        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B4.1