Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.04786e-05           8          77          14           1           0        B4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.37213e-05           3          54          40           3           0        B8.9
GOES Xray  =   5.03499e-08           9          81           9           1           0        B5.4
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            17.75       63.00       18.00        1.25        0.00     B5.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.5