Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.48935e-06          14          76           9           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.24801e-05           8          63          28           1           0        B7.1
GOES Xray  =   9.64766e-08           1          30          68           1           0        C1.3
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            18.50       52.25       28.50        0.75        0.00     B5.8
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6