Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.19665e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.64050e-06          50          48           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   5.65624e-08           8          76          15           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            40.75       52.25        6.75        0.25        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6