Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.15205e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.49382e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   7.54023e-08           7          62          28           3           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            26.25       56.00       15.50        2.25        0.00     B3.5
 
realized                                                                                      B8.1