Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.13793e-05           4          29          63           4           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.28619e-05           3          20          72           5           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.23168e-07           1          13          80           6           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            44           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             3.00       22.50       68.75        5.50        0.25     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      M2.8