Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.63954e-06          27          70           3           0           0        B2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.91786e-06          16          77           7           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.63657e-07           1           7          76          16           0        C3.5
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            12.50       52.50       29.50        5.50        0.00     B5.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7