Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.61282e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.04248e-06          43          55           2           0           0        B1.3
GOES Xray  =   9.03975e-08           1          40          56           3           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            29           7          48          38           7           0        B7.4
 
together                            26.50       46.75       24.25        2.50        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6