Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.20252e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.64593e-05           5          46          43           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   1.61164e-07           1           7          78          14           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =            34           7          47          35          11           0        B8.9
 
together                             5.75       42.75       43.75        7.75        0.00     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6