Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.77692e-06          15          78           6           1           0        B3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.36963e-05           3          54          40           3           0        B8.9
GOES Xray  =   1.31760e-07           1          10          77          12           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =            41           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             5.75       44.75       43.25        5.75        0.50     B9.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.8