Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.17624e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.76492e-06          49          49           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   5.32642e-08           9          79          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            31.50       57.25       10.25        1.00        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B4.7