Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.72728e-06          37          61           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.94245e-06          17          74           8           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   1.11813e-07           2          20          73           5           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            18.25       54.50       25.00        2.25        0.00     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6