Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.15006e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.00842e-06          17          74           8           1           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.32524e-07           1          10          79          10           0        C2.2
est. ISN   =            18          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            18.25       51.00       27.25        3.50        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      B9.2