Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.67540e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.27535e-06          53          45           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.18092e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            33.50       55.50       10.25        0.75        0.00     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B7.6