Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.77702e-05           3          44          50           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.86418e-05           3          33          59           5           0        C1.2
GOES Xray  =   1.78801e-07           1           1          83          14           1        C3.4
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                             6.25       35.50       52.00        6.00        0.25     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6