Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.78907e-06          13          76          10           1           0        B4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.30810e-05           5          58          36           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.33899e-07           1           8          79          12           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =            23           8          55          31           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             6.50       49.50       39.00        5.00        0.00     B8.5
 
realized                                                                                      C2.3