Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.81721e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.39204e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   7.64593e-08           7          61          29           3           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            28.75       57.75       12.00        1.50        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B4.3