Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.39759e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.27259e-06          17          75           8           0           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   1.36339e-07           1           7          79          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            21.00       48.50       26.75        3.75        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B4.7