Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.47282e-06          17          76           6           1           0        B4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.22032e-05           8          66          25           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   1.53567e-07           1           8          80          11           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            11.50       53.00       32.00        3.50        0.00     B6.6
 
realized                                                                                      C2.2