Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.85843e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.07912e-06          42          56           2           0           0        B1.3
GOES Xray  =   9.49878e-08           1          31          68           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            37.00       43.00       20.00        0.00        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B9.7