Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.78408e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.78374e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.13893e-08           9          80          10           1           0        B5.6
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            44.00       50.00        5.75        0.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6