Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.47278e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.66773e-06          48          50           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   4.83204e-08           8          83           8           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            40.50       54.25        5.00        0.25        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B4.6