Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.11363e-05           5          29          61           5           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.96915e-05           1           5          77          17           0        C3.1
GOES Xray  =   2.18578e-07           1           1          63          31           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =            41           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             2.75       18.00       62.75       15.00        1.50     C2.2
 
realized                                                                                      C8.5