Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.73565e-05           1          11          80           7           1        C2.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.15499e-05           1           4          73          22           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.88377e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            55           2          22          61          14           1        C2.5
 
together                             0.75        9.50       61.25       24.75        3.75     C4.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3