Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.50094e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.91615e-06          14          75          11           0           0        B4.4
GOES Xray  =   2.03235e-07           1           0          74          24           1        C4.4
est. ISN   =            62           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                            12.00       39.50       36.75       11.00        0.75     B9.5
 
realized                                                                                      C8.5