Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.74432e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.11823e-05           1           2          59          36           2        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.07158e-07           1           1          71          24           3        C4.4
est. ISN   =            60           3          17          61          18           1        C3.2
 
together                             1.75        5.50       67.25       24.00        1.50     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      X1.0