Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.32865e-06          13          79           7           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.20622e-05           8          66          25           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   1.62613e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C3.6
est. ISN   =            47           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             6.25       43.50       43.00        6.75        0.50     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.9