Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.03077e-05           9          77          13           1           0        B4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.46365e-05           4          58          36           2           0        B8.6
GOES Xray  =   1.58064e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =            41           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             4.50       44.25       44.50        6.25        0.50     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.2