Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.70070e-05           1           2          77          20           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.45517e-05           1           2          61          32           4        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   2.51780e-07           1           0          44          46           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =            31           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                             1.75       13.00       55.50       26.50        3.25     C5.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5