Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.92003e-05           2           5          67          26           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.01283e-05           1           0          67          30           2        C6.4
GOES Xray  =   2.44001e-07           1           0          39          52           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             2.25       15.50       51.25       28.50        2.50     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.7