Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.62272e-05           1          14          79           6           0        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.81692e-05           1           1          71          25           2        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.36728e-07           1           6          80          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             2.25       19.25       66.00       12.00        0.50     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C5.2