Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.42159e-05          14          58          26           2           0        B7.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.89429e-05           5          29          61           5           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.12396e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C5.3
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                             9.00       38.25       42.75        9.25        0.75     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C3.5