Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.51506e-06          16          77           6           1           0        B4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.12159e-05           9          76          15           0           0        B5.7
GOES Xray  =   1.52704e-07           1           7          82          10           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            21          12          52          33           3           0        B6.5
 
together                             9.50       53.00       34.00        3.50        0.00     B6.8
 
realized                                                                                      C2.3